The expected sharp increase in mobile traffic is due, in part, to a projected surge in the number of mobile Internet - connected devices, which will exceed the number of people on earth (2016 world population estimate of 7.3 billion; source: United Nations). During 2011−2016 Cisco anticipates that global mobile data traffic will outgrow global fixed data traffic by three times.

The forecast predicts an annual run rate of 130 exabytes of mobile data traffic, equivalent to:

• 33 billion DVDs.
• 4.3 quadrillion MP3 files (music/audio).
• 813 quadrillion short message service (SMS) text messages.

An exabyte is a unit ofinformationorcomputer storageequal to 1quintillionbytes. This mobile data traffic increase represents a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 78 percent spanning the forecast period. The incremental amount of traffic being added to the mobile Internet between 2015 and 2016 alone is approximately three times the estimated size of the entire mobile Internet in 2012. The following trends are driving these significant increases:

1. More streamed content
2. More mobile connections
3. Enhanced computing of devices
4. Faster mobile speeds
5. More mobile video

The Cisco study also projects that 71 percent of all smartphones and tablets (1.6 billion) could be capable of connecting to an Internet Protocol version 6 (IPv6) mobile network by 2016. From a broader perspective, 39 percent of all global mobile devices (more than 4 billion), could be IPv6-capable by 2016. Impact of Mobile Devices/Connections

• The increasing number of wireless devices and nodes accessing mobile networks worldwide is the primary contributor to traffic growth. By 2016, there will be more than 8 billion handheld or personal mobile-ready devices and nearly 2 billion machine-to-machine connections, such as GPS systems in cars, asset tracking systems in shipping and manufacturing sectors and medical applications for making patient records more readily available.
• Smartphones, laptops and other portable devices will drive about 90 percent of global mobile data traffic by 2016.
• M2M traffic will represent 5 percent of 2016 global mobile data traffic while residential broadband mobile gateways will account for the remaining 5 percent of global mobile data traffic.

Impact of Traffic Offload from Mobile Networks to Fixed Networks

• To address the rise in demand for the mobile Internet, service providers are increasingly looking to offload traffic to fixed/Wi-Fi networks.
• In 2011, 11 percent, or 72 petabytes, per month of total mobile data traffic was offloaded. By 2016, 22 percent, or 3.1 exabytes, per month of total mobile data traffic will be offloaded.
• Without offloading, the 2011-2016 global mobile data traffic CAGR would be 84 percent instead of 78 percent.
• Should all aspects of mobility be taken into consideration, such as cellular traffic, traffic offloaded from cellular networks and fixed/Wi-Fi traffic generated from portable devices, the total amount of mobility traffic would be more than four times the Cisco Mobile VNI forecast's 2016 cellular traffic level.
  
  • In 2011, the sum of cellular traffic; cellular offload traffic; and fixed/Wi-Fi traffic from portable devices totaled 11.5 exabytes per month:
    
    • Cellular is 5.2 percent or 597 petabytes per month
    • Cellular Offload is 0.6 percent or 72 petabytes per month
    • Fixed/Wi-Fi is 94.2 percent or 10.9 exabytes per month
  • In 2011, fixed/Wi-Fi traffic was more than 18 times greater than cellular traffic.
  • In 2015, the sum of cellular traffic; cellular offload traffic; and fixed/Wi-Fi traffic from portable devices totaled 44.1 exabytes per month:
    
    • Cellular is 16 percent or 6.9 exabytes per month
    • Cellular offload is four percent or 2.0 exabytes per month
    • Fixed/Wi-Fi is 80 percent or 35.2 exabytes per month
  • In 2015, Fixed/Wi-Fi traffic will be more than five times greater than cellular traffic.

Key Regional Growth Projections

According to the updated forecast by Cisco, the following regions are experiencing the greatest growth.

• Middle East and Africa will have the highest regional mobile data traffic growth rate with a CAGR of 104 percent, or 36-fold growth.
• Asia-Pacific will have an 84 percent CAGR, or 21-fold growth.
• Central and Eastern Europe will have an 83 percent CAGR, or 21-fold growth.
• Latin America will have a 79 percent CAGR, or 18-fold growth.
• North America will have a 75 percent CAGR, or 17-fold growth.
• Western Europe will have a 68 percent CAGR, or 14-fold growth.

Impact of Faster Global Mobile Network Connection Speeds The average mobile connection speed doubled last year and is expected to increase nine-fold by 2016. Mobile connection speeds are a key factor in supporting and accommodating mobile data traffic growth.